Display Rates of Chinese Museums and Statistical Analyses of Factors Influencing Exhibition Quantity

Abstract

The actual display rate of exhibitions in Chinese museums is unknown. A mathematical model was developed to estimate the display rate, and Lasso and logistics regression were used to analyze factors affecting exhibition quantity. From 2009 to 2017, display rates across different museum levels and types were low and declining. Among seven factors, area, GDP ranking, and professional employee count, were identified as most relevant to exhibition quantity. A nomogram was constructed using these factors to predict exhibition quantity probability, achieving results with a level of high accuracy (C-index: 0.99, AUC: 0.923). These factors showed a strong correlation (>0.7) with exhibition quantity.